Osborne: "Turning a Corner" or Turning an Eye on Society??

George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, said in a speech today that the economy is “turning a corner”. Now, people who know me, know that I’m not a big supporter of the current Tory government, but the way that Mr Osborne is touting this story really takes the biscuit. In London, this morning, he said that there were “tentative signs of a balanced, broad based and sustainable recovery”. About time...! We’ve now had this Conservative theory of austerity and budget costs for the last three and a half years, and we’re only starting to see signs of recovery!

 

Looking at the GDP growth figures per quarter, during the time that the Conservatives have been in power, there have been six quarters of growth and four quarters in which the economy shrank. Now, admittedly, a lot of the financial trouble that we have been in has been due to the recession in the Eurozone (i.e. the countries who use the Euro as their currency), but other EU countries have weathered the storm better than the UK. Germany, for example, has fared better, as well as other, lesser European nations, such as Estonia.

 

But, and this is my key gripe with economists, many only care about the figures on the page. Whilst growth figures look good in news reports, can anyone really honestly say that living standards are better than they were in 2010, when this Conservative government took power? Food prices are on the increase, energy bills are on the increase and more and more families are struggling to make ends meet. But, I’m sure that come Spring 2015, when the campaigning for the General Election is well under way, that the Conservatives will wheel out the growth statistics, saying that “look at our GDP figures! We’re helping people!”, even though more people may be living in poverty than before.

 

My final problem with George Osborne’s speech this morning was his boasting statement that “those in favour of a Plan B have lost the argument”. This is clearly rubbish. It took three-and-a-half years for any real, sustained improvement in the figures. In the UK, quarterly GDP growth has not been above 1% since Q3 2007 (July-September 2007), showing that whilst the UK economy has “turned a corner”, it’s hardly a fantastic recovery. Whose is it to say that if Ed Balls was running the economy, we would have favoured any better (or indeed worse)? No-one - we will never know. So Mr Osborne cannot, and should not, state that his plan was better than any other plan, because there is no way of knowing. All that should matter is the question of whether living standards (because that’s all that important) are better or worse than they were in 2010 with the Coalition came together. If it is better, then it has been a success, if not, then they have been a failure.

 

We can all stand up at the front of the class (or a press conference) and read out a list of figures, saying, “look, everything is better now!”, but the real people who know whether the Coalition have made living easier and better for them, or worse for them. And they hold the key at the next general election in 2015.

 

Cameron: A Man with a Van (with a slogan)

Firstly, I must start off with an apology. I haven't been writing as much as I planned to recently, because I've been away for a few days. Hopefully, I'll be able to write more in the coming weeks and months. Anyway, moving on...

Last week saw large billboard van commissioned by the Home Office warning illegal immigrants to "Go home or face arrest". These vans were trialled in six London boroughs (Ealing, Brent, Hounslow, Redbridge, Barking and Dagenham), not notorious for illegal immigrants. So, what is the motivation behind this campaign?

The slogan could be interpreted in a way that isolates legal immigrants who have a right to live and work here, and could lead to an increase in racially aggravated attacks on ethnic minorities. Whilst this hasn't been proven, or any suggestion of it being made in the national press, it is still worth considering. Likewise, the billboards did make it clear they were targeting illegal immigrants, rather than those legally living in the UK. But, the way that the media has grabbed hold of the story, focussing on the "Go home or face arrest" aspect rather than the illegal immigrant part.

Another motivation of this campaign could be a massive publicity stunt. After the Conservatives' huge failure at the local elections in May 2013, losing 335 councillors (that's 23% of the number held before the elections), mostly to UKIP - perceived to be stronger on immigration - David Cameron wanted his Party to be seen to take a strong stance against UKIP, and against immigration. Reading an article in The Guardian, only a couple of people had seen these moving billboards around the six London boroughs. So, maybe the announcement was only for big publicity, to be seen as been tough on immigration.

This is what I don't like about David Cameron. He always seems to jump on the bandwagon whenever it comes to the major policy areas that matters to the people. He does this whenever it comes to Prime Minister's Questions and he is questioned about the flat-lining economy, he instead turns his blame on Labour saying "Labour got us in to this mess" (I'm assuming that he's just practicing his election campaign motto for 2015!). He jumped on the bandwagon with the Queen's Diamond Jubilee and the London Olympics last year, Andy Murray's Wimbledon success and the birth of the Royal Baby, Prince George this year, and will continue to do so whilst distracting the public's attention from the poor economic state that neither he, nor George Osborne, has helped in his last three years. But, I'm sure come 2015, David Cameron won't care. He'll still say "Don't vote Labour, we'll go back to the mess of 2010!" rather than actually offering a viable alternative! In fairness, Labour aren't much better, as they haven't even suggested an alternative either, but come 2015, Labour should show their cards and their policies.

So, hopefully, the public will see through these vans and these slogans, as either a "call to arms" against illegal immigrants, or as a publicity stunt to show that they aren't going to roll over against UKIP's sudden rise to popularity. Either way, Cameron's jumping again!!